On September 14, 2021, California participated in a recall election in an effort to remove the incumbent governor Gavin Newsom from office. By September 15, after counting millions of ballots, the result was clear: Newsom would stay in power. So, what happened to California to get to this point?

A 1911 law makes California one of 20 states to allow the removal of the incumbent governor from power. Only once in Californian history has a recall election succeeded, when Arnold Schwarzenegger replaced Gray Davis in 2003. In the 2021 recall, ballots consisted of two questions: the first question asked whether or not Newsom should be recalled, and the second question gave 46 candidates as options on who should replace Newsom.

Resentment over Newsom’s leadership grew before spiking in 2020, accentuated by his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in late last year when photos emerged of Newsom defying his own mask mandate. Furthermore, rising inflation, crime, and homelessness, as well as unprecedented wildfires have all contributed to Newsom’s tanking reputation in the past year. However, as the election neared, Newsom’s ratings fell steady, and he consistently remained the projected front-runner. His main rival, Larry Elder, is a conservative talk-show host who advocated for bringing reforms to California and also opposed strict pandemic measures. Unsurprisingly, Governor Newsom largely labelled the recall election as redundant by launching large-scale media campaigns criticizing the necessity of the election. As Elder emerged as his main opponent in late July, Newsom focused his campaign on attacking Elder. Meanwhile, Elder focused his campaign on Newsom’s mishandling of the pandemic as well as rising crime and social issues.

By election day, nearly all major polls predicted that Newsom would remain in power. As mail-in ballots began trickling in, an almost 2 to 1 lead became clear in the Democrat state, with approximately 64% of voters believing Newsom should not be recalled, with the remaining 36% voting he should be. By late September 14, Elder officially conceded the election, asking for his voters to be “gracious in defeat.”

The impact of this election has implications all around the country. Despite losing a congressional vote as a result of the 2020 census, California still remains, by far, the largest state, with some 40 million residents. Should Newsom have been recalled, Elder would have had a massive influence on the extremely tight 50-50 US senate, which would affect election results next year. Overall, the election offers an interesting and complex glimpse of California politics and what could possibly go down in future razor-thin races that affect all of the US.